'Wost case scenario': 12-year supply of distressed properties
The real estate market will see improvement in the remainder of this
year and in 2012, but is unlikely to recover until 2013 or beyond, said
speakers at a recent Pacific Coast Builders Conference (PCBC).
"We're in a 'broken W' economy. A couple of quarters up, then down,"
said Ken Rosen, chair of UC Berkeley's Fisher Center for Real Estate
and Urban Economics. He was one of three panelists in a session titled
"Translating the Macro Economic Forecast to Real Local Market
Knowledge."
"The housing market may have bottomed, but chances of a housing
recovery this year are pretty slim," said Elliott Pollack, CEO of
Elliott D. Pollack & Co., an economic and real estate consulting
firm.
Overall, "the recovery is happening, it's just not happening as fast as
we'd like," Rosen said. “Tight credit restrictions are one of the
biggest factors constraining that recovery. Thirty to 40 percent of
the people who want to buy a house don't qualify. Credit should be
loosest at the bottom of a cycle," he added.
For more information, go to Real Estate Recovery Won't Arrive Till 2013 or Beyond
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